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Supply Chain Breaking Again ?

According to the recent manufacturing PMI reports the supply chain pressures are reappearing. Though the level of changes is small it might indicate that easing of it is over or close to over. For a better sense, the global supply chain pressure index moved from -1.71 to -1.2. This is the reversal of a falling trend that started in February 2022. Even USA supply time is indicating a small reversal.

Within the last month or container prices have increased by 13% after falling for almost 18 months. Various factors can contribute to such reversal. One of them is tension between Russia and Ukraine that is now impacting the ship movement in the Black Sea.

In addition to this despite having inventories, some of the major companies are shifting from restocking strategy to adding to it as consumer spending continues to hold well. And July to September being the peak ordering and shipping of everything, any reversals should be treated with caution

Though these are early days of any reversal confirmation given that indicators and prices can find some level of pause. This would only add to the uncertainty of the interest rate trajectory ahead as inflation predictions get volatile.


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