Russia makes a Mistake ?

In the past week, Russian drones have crossed the borders of Poland and Romania. After months of anticipation and concern for NATO, the largest military exercise between Russia and Belarus, near the Belarusian border, is underway. During this period, Poland has witnessed drone intrusion twice and Romania once. This has triggered a defensive response from NATO.

Although opinions on whether the incident was an accident or intentional continue to be disputed, this may put the Russia-Ukraine peace talks on pause. As actions speak louder, the Russian side, along with Ukraine, has intensified its attacks on each other since the last conversation with the USA. 

Over the weekend, President Trump also mentioned that Europe had to take hard steps against China for buying Russian oil. He also added that they should stop buying the Russian gas and oil products. The intention is clear that if they do not do it, then they do not support the war to finish. 

This might further incentivise Russia to expand its military scope as differences in NATO grow stronger. If this does happen and gets NATO countries involved, then volatility in commodity markets would rise once again, as it did when Russia entered Ukraine's borders.