The OPEC+ meeting on 5th December is scheduled to decide whether to delay the voluntary cuts withdrawal. Since July, when OPEC+ announced plans to start the withdrawal of cuts, prices have reduced from $85/bbl to $72/bbl. The question it faces is whether to risk the lower prices or lower market share.
On 20th January, President-elect Trump will be assuming office, and as he already has mentioned, he is ready to take coordinated actions to shake up the oil economy. The first of these actions will be to take policy steps to increase the USA's production and result in a higher market share in global production. The second will be to implement strict restrictions and sanctions on Iran Oil, which still moves around in dark fleets.
These two trends would impact the prices and medium-term market shares that would force OPEC+ to respond. The problem it faces might be more complicated to delay the withdrawal any further.
From the consumer countries' perspective, these will be welcome steps as prices and output return to lower premiums. China might be facing some issues as it still imports sufficiently cheaper Iranian oil.
However, uncertainty towards actual actions and implementations will remain over the next few months. The upcoming events along with geopolitical tensions might be enough to bring oil prices at a decisive turn that breaks the range set for the past few quarters.
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