Israel - Iran : The Trump Card

Overnight, the US president posted that all Tehran residents should evacuate and thereafter left G7 a day early to have a National Security Council meeting. Within the same time period, China issued a warning to its citizens in Tel Aviv to evacuate. On top of that, an Israeli official told CNN that they have a surprise in store for Tehran this week that would make the “Pager” operation look small.

All these moving events are crucial as they indicate a major escalation ahead. The question is can President Trump pull out a trick and make Iran take the nuclear deal and end this before the next level of escalation happens? 

The USA is the most important part of this puzzle as it has the capability of destroying Iran's nuclear site which is deep underground. This is why Israel is still pushing for it to join the attacks. It is also the one that Iran depends on to find some way to help stop the attacks.

The next hours might decide what the terms are laid out for Iran to decide on the path ahead. The problem they have is the count of missiles they might have been left with and the airspace control they have lost. This gives Israel a much bigger advantage in the current scenario.

The risks are equally weighted for now but given the dynamics of the situation, there can be knee-jerk changes on either side. This would keep financial markets especially energy markets on toes.