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Omicron and The Test Run

It has been two months since Omicron was declared as a variant of worry, resulting in swift lockdowns and reversal in much of momentum made on the demand side since the vaccines had been deployed.

For now, the positive impact of it has been in the incremental inflation has stagnated and the durability of the vaccine with a booster has held up in terms of severity caused. On the negative side, the higher rate of transmission has resulted in countries like China shut down important ports and trade centers impacting the venerable supply chain.

But the more important fact is where do the variant trajectory and the response to it go from here. Many would-be already calling it an endemic in the making but this would be a premature decision as Pfizer and Moderna is starting a trial on omicron-specific vaccine meaning the adjustments are bigger.

Most of the developed world has been vaccinated on MRNA based technology thus risk of variant-based vaccine requirements for the period ahead. This will not be taken well if the next variant of worry results in higher transmission with higher severity in the summer or next winter wave.

Therefore, there is an urgent need to be proactive again in thee covid concern rather than reactive or calling it an endemic cause even the Omicron has developed a sub-lineage BA.2 that is higher transmissible with already present in the UK. The middle of February would be crucial as the sub linage becomes the major contributor to the cases.


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