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Is Commodity Winter Over ?

If the past few weeks are indications of months rahe then it can be said that the fall in commodity prices is now coming to an end. The reduction in all groups of commodities started in June 2022 as the prices in the financial markets occurred during May 2022. However, the physical prices only saw a decline from January 2023. But this trend is seeing the first signs of reversal in both markets.

Looking at the news and data reasons are plenty. If energy prices are to be considered then a reduction in inventories in the USA before winter is a concern and a reduction in production by OPEC+ that might be adjusted on the need basis is another concern.

Agriculture and Grain commodities prices are volatile given the Russia- Ukraine grain deal remains suspended and many countries are restricting exports which adds to the supply pressure.

Metals and new energy commodities prices are finding some ground as China tries to recover and some measures such as the US hiking duty on aluminium used for cans making products more expensive.

Though all these are in the initial stages the duration of this trend will be decided in the coming months. The important thing to look at will be, whether you prove to be a risk for inflation and interest rates in quarters ahead.


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