Yesterday Iran provided reply to the head negotiator of the nuclear agreement and everyone concerned with it directly or indirectly is eager to read. It is not only important whether they agree to the deal but also that they can provide the oil supply as quickly as possible. According to the reports, a deadline of two days is provided by Iran for the USA to reply.
It is a very crucial juncture for the oil market as the supplies are running very tight in the physical market. This is being proved by the Iran unofficial supply being sold as a premium compared to a discount a few quarters back. Even the discount on Russian oil has been reduced to $10/bbl compared to $30/bbl.
Another reason why this becomes important as far as timing is concerned is due to the mid-term elections in the USA that are to be held in November. Currently, the polls favor the Republicans though there has been a reduction in the lead in recent weeks. But the lower ranking of the Democratic Party is mainly due to the high inflation that can be only brought down before the elections when the crud prices crack as the new supply via Iran is official. Anyway else will just form the base in prices before the next rise.
In addition to these factors, G7 is continuing its aggressive negotiation with other oil-consuming nations to join them in introducing the price cap on Russian oil. This has received a negative response from Russia that it will stop the supplies to nations applying the cap. The efforts are being made to start applying the price cap from Dec 2022.
All these factors show that Iran does have an upper hand in the negotiation but whether the government overlooks the dates and guarantee issue is the important question. This would be answered in the next few weeks depending on the USA's reply.