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Grain Drain - The Coming Pain

Last week Russia officially announced its withdrawal from the Grain Deal that helped safe passage to Ukrainian Food supply to other countries. Within the same week, there were reports of Russian attack on the warehouses at Odesa Port ( One of major food ports in Ukraine. In addition, India announced ban on exports of non-basmati rice.

According to an EU food security portal , around 8% of total global supply of calories is under some kind of restriction. This consists of 25 products and 19 countries.

The problem that global leaders face is that such restrictions are justified as the countries have to prioritise the domestic product prices and availability. And given the year of volatile weather and El Niño the future production is uncertain.

This might result in an upside risk to inflation by end of this year or early next year as inventories reduce more quickly especially for the import related products.


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