It has been only three weeks since the betting market started to factor in President Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 elections and last night it became official. Within this period, the odds of V.P. Kamala Harris replacing him went from 5% to 23.5% before last night and now they have surged to a high of 29.5% with the next competition at 3%. In addition to this within hours the announcement ActBlue ( Democratic Party Fund Raising) website collected small donations worth $30 million.
Given the backing of some major donors and the party mentioned there is a less likely chance of a close competition for party nomination. This change in scenario also impacted the odds of former president Trump as they fell from 66.2% to 58.4% within a week. The next few days will be important to decide the trend before the debate in September.
During the same period, all investors are focused on what BoJ does regarding policy rates in next week's meeting as inflation stays high and economic growth slows down. On the other end, the PBOC cut short-term lending rates to boost credit growth.
With such a high level of political volatility and divergences in central bank policies, uncertainty in financial markets will likely rise in the coming months. This already can be seen in VIX rising by 32% within a week with investors focusing on gold and cryptocurrency as hedges.
Comments