100 Days done, 1360 to go : Trump 2

Most trade, and political analysts along with investors and economists have been super busy in the last 100 days. Thanks to President Trump who has completed his 100 days in office, there has been some action or announcement of future ones. The real impact comes when one realises that 1360 days are left for term completion. 

A review of the first 100 days has been done by all and there might even be scope for overanalysing. The consistency has been on the unpredictable events and timing of it despite him being clear of it in many interviews. Then who can we blame? Human behaviour might be best as we do not like radical changes in a short period. 

The focus currently is on tariffs, within a month the world has seen them go from lowest to highest in decades to settle now at mid-levels. The same happened in financial markets as they fell from highs to lows for years only to be somewhere in the middle. 

The next 60 days are more crucial than the past 100 days as the world looks to find clues for further relief with trade deals, tax cuts and debt hikes. As the world leaders hurdle for the trade deals, financial markets as well hurdle to reverse to mean levels. 

In all these days and even before elections since August 2024, VIX ( volatility index ) has been a good lead indicator of friction in markets. Currently, it is at near levels of March end and lows but will stay there or move up again? Best to follow rather than anticipate.