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Where is the US Banks Cash Going ?

In the last four months, the US banking system liquidity’s one measure which is the reverse repo has reduced from $2 trillion to $ 1.1 trillion. This in a normalised economy should mean that risk capacity has increased and the money shifted to lending. But during the same period, the loans have remained around $12.21 trillion.


The majority of this money has only shifted to a higher yield rather than a higher risk. This happens when most of the bankers estimate that the rate hiking cycle is not finished. And this assumption leads to a shift in allocation. This can be confirmed as the US Treasury increased its cash level by 6 times to $870 Billion during the same period.


Thus, it can be taken as an indication that the hiking cycle is nearly done but the risk in the economy is still not over. The trend was the opposite after the second round of pandemic stimulus.


The problem is that the Reverse repo levels are still very high with almost 109 banks having $1.1 trillion in such a facility is worrying. The next few quarters will be critical as the inflation and economic trend becomes more clear.


If there is a soft landing as many estimate then there be a next round of reduction in the facility. But if inflation creates the next round of rate hikes then there would be an increase that would put further pressure on markets that remain illiquid for some time now.

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