Trade : Deal or No Deal ?

Only thirty days remain until the pause on reciprocal tariffs ends. Till now only United Kingdom has announced an interim agreement. The discussion is at an advanced stage with India and Japan. The biggest SR and toughest discussion with China has found new momentum after leaders had a conversation last week. 

Given that eighteen nations in total make up 90% of the USA trade deficit only three to four are even being talked about. Will they get relief or will the tariff for everyone go up as the discussions move slowly? As Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned uncertainty is a strategic negotiation tool. And it would be anyone's guess what comes next. 

The main problem arises once there are certain interim agreements and the judicial events lead to higher uncertainty than now. Also, certain sectors like Pharma and chips have not been even discussed currently.

The unknowns and volatility make the current environment difficult for not only corporates and investors but also central banks. They are taken to be the main support in times like these but given that most of them enter summer in a pause mode the coming quarter would be likely more chaotic than the current one.