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Population Impacting Future Growth ?

From 1975 till 2023 global population has been adding one billion people every 11-12 years with growth declining from 1.8% to 1.2%. However, this trend further declined from 2021 onwards when the growth fell around 0.85%. This can be attributed to the continued excessive death rate combined with a lower birth rate as marriage and fertility rates drop further. Will this trend continue and decline further impacting the future global GDP growth? 

The current trend of GDP growth rate before 2020 had been in the range of 2.5%-3%. Given that 70% of it is consumer driven there is likely an impact that has a lag. Moreover, the ageing population will become a major issue in the next decade as China and India which have 35% of the world population witness rise in average age. 

This would bring focus on two major elements that need focus. The first would be that the per capita income of every global citizen is sustainably growing. This would be an element supported by some kind of Universal Basic Income via Global CBDC, leading to sustainable inflation and higher money supply. 

The second element would be that all companies need higher productivity per employee and overall. This would be highly unlikely without costs. Thus, the current focus on AI and robots might help achieve this without impacting cost or operations volatility. 

This makes the coming decade crucial and transitional in many ways as the current public and private investments would result in the lower impact of geopolitical changes that are essential for a consumer-driven world economy.


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