As the first week of March comes to a close it can have no other name than March madness month. It was getting some stability but this has brought volatility in financial and chaos in the real world again.
If we look at most equities they are repeating the year-to-date performance from 2020. And if the next two weeks are similar then there surely is more madness left.
In the real world again we are witnessing a synchronized lockdown but today it is a financial one that would be isolating Russia due to the military operation they are doing in Ukraine.
The only relief in sight that everyone was looking for is from the JCPOA deal with Iran bringing the majority of 100 mn bbl floating barrels into the market and resulting in cooling off crude prices that are currently sky-high of $130/bbl. But due to some intervention by Russia, the deal gets delayed or further complicated.
In all this chaos the central banks have toned down a bit but are not removing the view that inflation can only be fought by rate hikes. This will surely bring the chaos to an even further boil and may result in some level of the financial crisis in the summer.
This does not take away the importance of Covid out of the way as the winter waves subside with less strain in the majority of countries but as immunity wanes in summer does the wave become much more harmful as the variant have surely become more transmissible.
All these events not even close to finishing this month will surely result in a lot of change in wealth and the start of the summer recession.