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Container rates Bust = Economic Bust ?

During last year, global container rates have fallen by 86% to $ 1416 per unit. The peak rate was in September 2021 at $10,996. The Global Container Volume is down by 20% within the same period. These two elements have been leading indicators for the economic activity in coming quarters. If this trend is to be taken true then it means that the economic trend in coming quarters will see a sharp fall.

Though the reduction in these elements eases some parts of inflation and supply chain problems related to the manufacturing economy. But at the same time, Crude Oil tanker rates have increased by 80% during the last year. This results in continuing supply and cost problems for oil-importing countries.

Such a combination of economic downturns and rising fuel prices will create a unique problem for governments and central banks to navigate through without breaking something.

This also brings volatility to focus as the data will be less predictable next few quarters and the surprise level on both sides would be frequent.

Such a scenario takes some months to build up and then suddenly reveals itself in a big way with a large impact. Thus, everyone needs to take a piece of good news with some level of scepticism and vice versa.


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