In the next 48 hours, there are 10 countries' central banks that will meet and it becomes important when all the central banks have policies synced to a level that has not been witnessed since the pre-Global Financial Crisis. Out of them, there are 2 meetings that almost all of the financial world will be looking at with a microscope. These are the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
The importance of these two is defined by the stage of policy they are currently at. US Federal Reserve is hiking rates at the fastest pace in history and the Bank of Japan ( BoJ) is the last central bank in the world with interest rates still negative.
The action by Federal Reserve is mostly anticipated with a little risk towards a higher increase. The action by BoJ will be to justify the continuation of its negative interest rate despite the inflation rate being at an eight-year high.
The microscope will be put over the commentary of both as the markets will try to find the peak of one and the bottom of another.
Before these meetings, the most important indicators are already at a peak with US 2-year bond yield near 4% and USDJPY near 145. If the policy announcements are below the aggressive estimates there will be a relief for a week or so.
Though this is an important juncture for central banks but the most important meetings will be in November as the trend of inflation will be in the winter seasonality, when monthly changes are higher than the autumn period.
Commentaires