If 2023 was the year of Global Volatility then 2024 can be tagged as the year of Global Election. According to a report, 40 countries with having 3.2 Bn in population and $44.2 Trillion in GDP are having elections this year. This accounts for almost 41% of the population and 42% of World GDP.
The interesting part is the countries going to the election, which include India , USA and Russia. These particular elections along with Taiwan are going to influence the geopolitical road ahead. Any negative surprises will be having a large impact, especially on the financial markets.
The start to this could not have been more controversial as Bangladesh's results were announced yesterday giving the current government 5th term. The twist was that the opposition parties fully boycotted the elections. USA made a statement on it referring to a not free and fair election.
Though it is only the second week of the new year, the next crucial election will Taiwan which is already having disputes over external influences. Post that all eyes will be on Indian elections and last would be the USA. Russian elections are important as it would be crucial to what direction Ukraine conflicts head to.
From the global financial market perspective, it is important for no negative surprises to come true. This would include any reversal of inflation that can hamper chances of a rate cut in the second half impacting the USA election.
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