The first 48 hours of June have been more than exciting for investors, especially the ones that focus on event-led moves. First, was the announcement of a new six-week deal that awaits Hamas approval. Second, the world's largest democracy ended its weeks-long election with an Exit Poll giving a major win to the current government. And last for now but not certainly for the month, OPEC+ decided to unwind its voluntary cuts from October 2024.
There are big movements in a short period and as usual, they do have risks attached to them as Israel still feels a low probability of the deal being accepted and OPEC+ is open to change depending on markets.
The coming weeks are also equally if not more crucial to guide the path towards the second half of the year. As the ECB is likely to provide its first rate cut the Fed begins to reduce its quantitative tightening. The focus is also on the Bank of Japan as Yen continues to slide further and the Bank of England will conduct its last meeting before elections in July. In addition, RBI will also meet for the first time post elections.
Given these events and other variables like Inflation data, this might turn out to be a high-octane month for stocks, bonds and currency as well. As always there are three ways it can go but given such a line it is most probable to have two ways that are the best or worst as the base case is unlikely.
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