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Oil market entering - JCPOA vs OPEC+

Yesterday the oil markets were moving down with a cut of 3-4% but then during the USA mid-market, the reversal started happening without any stoppage with a close slightly above the open.

This occurred on two different newsprints, the fall was driven by the news reports that the USA has met most of the demands made by Iran and the deal can be signed by this week. This reversal was driven by two elements, first was when the news referred to the deal being closest rather than done. And second, when the Saudi Energy minister mentioned that there is financial speculation in oil markets that was driving volatility and also gave a hint that OPEC+ might start to reduce supply.

These volatile movements should be expected to increase as the speculation in the new rises about the JCPOA deal. According to some reports, the deal might result in raising conflict in the Middle East region and will bring more uncertainty.

From the physical oil market view, not much relief would come in the short term as Iran has mentioned that it would require three to four months to ramp exports to a decent size and it would only happen post verification of the sanctions removal. So in total, it might post-winter period when the supply satisfies the demand to some extent, given the deal is signed in autumn.

But in the meantime, if OPEC+ mainly driven by Saudi and Russia decide to pause the output increase or even start reducing it. The deal impact would be next to negligible.

Thus, it will be speculation to assume that the JCPOA deal will reduce the physical oil market situation anytime soon.


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